How Big Things Get Done Book Review, Part 1 The Failure.

Understanding history is crucial for achieving success in the future, particularly when accompanied by comprehensive data analysis. This concept is effectively conveyed in the book “How Big Things Get Done” authored by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. The book offers valuable insights based on years of experience and digs into the analysis of project data spanning to decades of years after delivery which gives us the full story of the project benefits real outcome.

Upon reading the book I found it to be rich of actual examples studies and feedback. The comprehensive case studies of projects’ success and failure provide valuable insights to learn from it.

The approach of storytelling, rather than a rigid academic or engineering analysis, allows for easy, insightful, and understandable language about the project’s history. From the initial vision to build a unique and unforgettable structure, to the point of realizing success or failure, the book offers a deep dive into the untold thoughts and hidden facts behind the projects. Prof. Flyvbjerg utilized both the data history and input from project members to provide a comprehensive understanding of the projects which add value to projects rigid data.

Moreover, what is different of this book to the other academic research on budget overrun and time delays that, it is not abusing the terms over budget and time delays without telling what the project type is and what circumstances the project went through. It gives detailed percentage of overrun and delays by project type from buildings, power, rail until 25 types of projects which approximately covers most of projects types. The only comment I have here is to add the dimension of, if it is public funded, private funded or joint investment between private and public. I think, the high percentage of budget overrun will be less for private sector because they have better governance around business case of cost and profit analysis in their gates reviews. Maybe in the future revision of the projects data will be expanded in the table for more insights.

The authors took us on a guided tour through a rich history of case studies, exploring how a vision to deliver an amazing project to serve a nation or leave an unforgettable impression on visitors and end-users can ultimately end in shameful failure or the joy of succuss. This type of data and case study analysis is highly sought after by engineering and construction professionals, including myself. I had the feeling that this book would align my own experiences on various aspects of project delivery which it did. The similarity between Middle East experience and the international projects data are many. This is another article to write about. Any Engineering and Construction professional especially public sectors and private developers would recognize the value of using and understanding such data to plan future projects more wisely. Moreover, the fact that the book is written by an academic professor and practicing planning specialist with extensive experience in project’s economy, planning and project controls adds a lot to its credibility.

While reading “How Big Things Get Done,” I found myself delving deeper into the cases presented in the book. I took the initiative to search for more information about their history outside of the book and its endnotes, drawing insights from different resources. My aim was to get a different prospective and patterns of success and failure and compare these international experiences with those in the Middle East.

The book explores various projects starting from the initiation stage, where someone conceives an idea or vision for a challenging project. Through simple storytelling, the author explains how such visions can be transformed into either successful or failed projects. One of the visionary projects studied in the book is the California High-Speed Rail, an ambitious plan to link downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco in just two and a half hours. This goal is impressive, and the project promises to serve millions every year, reduce emissions and cost, utilize the latest safest speed rail technology, and provide an exceptional traveler experience.

The cost of the train ticket was planned to range from $68 to $104. With such target and advertisement, it was brilliant idea politically. The planned cost was about USD33 billion and planned to open by 2020 while the vision was established in 2008. Until the book was written and after 14 years the book stated “much about the project remains uncertain, but we can be sure that the end result will not be what was promised.”

The author added “Cost estimates soared, to $43 billion, $68 billion, $77 billion, then almost $83 billion. As I write, the current highest estimate is $100 billion. But the truth is that nobody knows what the full, final cost will be”. Quote end.

Unfortunately, the California High-Speed Rail project failed to deliver on its promises. As I mentioned earlier, I conducted further research on the case studies outside the book and found that there were developments after the first draft was written about this section as 2021. The project is scheduled to continue, with a delivery date of 2030 and a three-year risk of delays to 2033 for the Entire Phase 1 System (San Francisco to Anaheim). In February 2022, the California High-Speed Rail Authority issued its new draft business plan, which estimated an ultimate cost of up to $105 billion. However, less than three months later, the “final plan” raised the estimate to $113 billion. Their website currently estimates that the total cost of implementing the Entire Phase 1 System (San Francisco to Anaheim) will range from $88 billion to $128 billion. This raise the hard question again, why we continue such huge budget projects?

The cost overruns for this project are mind-blowing, jumping from an initial budget of $33 billion to a staggering $128 billion. To put this in perspective, the latter budget is roughly 40% of Saudi Arabia’s budget for the year 2023. A country that is developing very ambitious infrastructure and funding salaries for the whole government, among other things. Moreover, this $128 billion budget will cover the needed budget to maintain and upgrade the full infrastructure of California reported in the state-wide deferred maintenance budget report which needed $84.2 billion as reported on 2022 budget.

The book is discussing many similar projects with such huge budge overrun. It opens the mind of the public why it happened? and why we could not deliver it within budget or with responsible increase?

The book went more and mentioned a total failure mega power nuclear project which spent $12 billion and expected to spent another $3.4 Billion for decommissioning generating zero electricity.

That is the project called in Japanese the Monju, meaning wisdom. The Japanese’s government aimed in 1983 to generate 280-megawatt (MW) reactor is which designed to burn plutonium refined from the spent fuel of conventional reactors and at the same time create more fuel, a process thought to be the most promising for a country whose limited natural resources force it to rely on imports for virtually all its oil and gas needs. On 2017, the authorities admit the failure and requested the approval to decommissioning the plant.

The book sheds light on various reasons for cost overruns and project delays, but the root cause is often the lack of proper planning and research before undertaking a project. The author emphasizes the importance of having a dream, but also stresses that planning and data analysis are crucial in providing credible information to decision makers.

The staggering cost of the California High-Speed Rail project, estimated at $128 billion, raises questions about whether this money could have been better spent on more critical projects like the old infrastructure which needs urgent funds.

The book also highlights the role of politicians in the project’s challenges, with the initial budget of $33 billion being significantly lower than the expected costs. This reflects poor management and decision-making in a democratic country where opposing views and opinions should be considered. The opposition to the project, fueled by unclear cost estimates, contributed to significant delays. Ultimately, a referendum was necessary to secure public support for the project, despite the enormous budget.

What can we learn from the history of ambitious projects provided from the book?

How can we apply this knowledge to our future planning?

It’s clear that we can’t stop dreaming big, and the book provides insight into the challenges and costs associated with such visionary projects. Take the Sydney Opera House, for example, which took 14 years to complete and was significantly over budget. If people had known the cost up front, they may not have supported the project, but now it stands as an iconic symbol of Australia.

Similarly, the International Space Station and the James Webb Telescope were both significantly over budget, but the benefits of these projects are immeasurable. We’ve gained a better understanding of the space and the universe, which is priceless.

Therefore, it’s important to note, that not all projects with delays and budget overruns are considered a failure. Public and stakeholder opinions, as well as the magnitude of time and budget variation, must be taken into consideration.

The book features many case studies that illustrate the success pattern too. One standout example of a successful project is Heathrow Terminal 5. However, the succus stories will come soon in part 2 of this amazing rich experience book.

If you did not read the book, I recommend to read it. I cant expand more in this article which is already three pages. It included more interesting case studies.

Thanks a lot for the valuable effort of the authors. I raise the hat for both of them.

Written by Ziad Albasir

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