The Reality of Growth

In December 2024, Saudi Arabia published its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 4.4%. A few months later, in July 2025, the IMF revised its forecast downward to 3.6%.

By January 2026, the actual figures were released: Saudi Arabia achieved 4.6% GDP growth. These numbers are not just statistics. They are confirmation that The Kingdom planning is solid, grounded, and realistic. They reflect a clear shift in how the Kingdom’s leadership thinks, more self aware, more confident, and deeply aligned with its true capabilities and strengths.

Two additional factors make this outcome even more remarkable. First, the IMF’s own forecast for global growth in 2025 was only 3%, reflecting a cautious, if not skeptical global outlook. Second, the Saudi economy has historically been viewed as highly correlated with global growth due to oil market exposure. The numbers above crashed such expectations which is a sign of strength economy against global markets changes.

Challenging the Global Narrative

Now consider this: a skeptical global outlook from top IMF economists (proven wrong by actual numbers), alongside commentary from parts of the press and individual commentators who speak about “Saudi mega-project challenges,” “descaling,” often without real knowledge of facts on the ground. Much of this narrative is either misleading, poorly informed, or driven by bad intentions rather than evidence.

As a mega-projects professional with over 28 years of experience, I rely on hard research, not sentiment. Globally, only 2% of mega-projects are delivered on time and within budget. More than 70% struggle to deliver what was originally planned. Cost overruns, multi year delays are the global project delivery norm not the exception.

In Saudi mega-projects, yes, we see delays. Yes, we see budget overruns. That is entirely normal for developments of this unprecedented scale and concepts. What matters is that Saudi officials have been clear and transparent: they are willing to review every project and take whatever decisions are necessary to ensure long term value and correctness. Which we do it in every single big development project. It is a normal step, managing the changes. That is not weakness, it is maturity.

Three Structural Challenges

In fact, challenges in Saudi mega projects delivery environment are often greater than in Western markets for three structural reasons.

First, international consultants, who lead feasibility studies and designs, have significant influence on all decision-making process. I witness consultants delayed their willing to submit a proposal or report by 6 months. I witness reports submitted with unexpected results and needed to be restudied and submit again. Many similar issues around this subject. I can go for pages.

Second, the known shortage of highly specialized Saudis technical expertise across all disciplines in such busy project’s delivery. It adds complexity to governance and review before approval.

Third, geopolitical realities place additional pressure on the Kingdom, from being the world’s primary oil supplier to navigating regional instability. Saudi leadership has made exceptional decisions to avoid geopolitical traps, which in itself is a major success.

An Eyewitness Journey: 2015 – 2025

For those unfamiliar with the numbers, let me take you on a brief journey from 2015 to the end of 2025 since King Slaman ascend and since Vision 2030 announcement by the Crown Prince. I speak here not only from data, but as an eyewitness. I lived in Saudi Arabia between 2013 and 2016, based in Khobar. I witnessed the final years of the old era and the shock of the oil price collapse, which the private sector felt deeply. I was there when Vision 2030 was announced in April 2015. I watched it with Saudi colleagues as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman presented it, with passion, determination, and complete belief in his people.

What struck me most was his emphasis on the spirit and resilience of Saudi youth likening them to Mount Tuwaiq. That unity between leadership and people is what builds nations. Today, that vision becomes a beautiful reality the Saudis are enjoying it everyday.

I returned between 2019 and 2022 to work directly on mega-projects. I witnessed the structural foundations of a great civilisation being poured, literally and figuratively. What stood out was the ambition, discipline, participation, and knowledge of the new Saudi generation. They believe in the vision. They are building it. They are proud of it. Above of all, they determined to make it fully materialised on the ground.

When I returned again in July 2025, I saw the finished architecture of a dream realized. Simply returning to Khobar was enough to understand the scale of change. The leap in infrastructure since 2016 is enormous. Back then, I used to say Khobar offered the best professional years of my life, balance life and work life, unlike the intense construction boom of Dubai between 1999 and 2008 I had.

Today, I compare Khobar with Dubai, Sharjah, and Abu Dhabi, and I genuinely believe it is better, especially in terms of family oriented infrastructure and quality of life. I have been here for six months and never once felt the need to escape to Bahrain or Dubai. Life here is simply excellent.

The Power of Facts & Numbers

Forgive the emotional detour, let me return to facts and numbers. Until 2015, the Saudi economy was heavily dependent on oil prices. Today’s data proves those chains have been broken. In 2025, while maintaining strategic oil discipline, non-oil GDP reached 51.5% of total output. This is not just diversification; it is perfect economic planning in action.

Non oil revenue more than 300% to SAR 489 billion ($130.4 billion), up from SAR 163 billion ($43.5 billion) in 2015. The economy expanded from SAR 2.4 trillion ($654 billion) to SAR 4.6 trillion ($1.226 trillion), creating a powerful shock absorber against global volatility, aa goal many governments attempt but rarely achieve.

Now consider inflation: the 10-year average is just 1.8%, with growth recorded every year except during COVID. In 2025, inflation stood at 1.9% alongside 4.6% GDP growth. By any economic standard, this is a major success.

Social Transformation & Employment

Perhaps the most dramatic transformation, socially and economically, has been employment. In 2015, unemployment stood at 11.8%. Today, official figures from the Ministry of Finance and GASTAT confirm it has fallen to 6.3%, surpassing the Vision 2030 target five years early.

This is 2.92 million Saudis. About 2.42 million employed in the private sector and only 492,620 employed in the public sector. Equally powerful is the story of Saudi women. During my first stay, female workforce participation was 19.1% mainly in public sector like teaching. Today, it stands at 36.3% everywhere. I now see Saudi women leading boardrooms, piloting aircraft, and engineering giga projects.

The Digital & AI Revolution

Quality of life in 2025 is unrecognizable compared to 2013. Public squares are alive late into the night. Women by themselves can enjoy the night without any worries and need for a male companion. Riyadh’s Metro now connects key districts. Green urban spaces exist where none did just a few years ago. Tourism spending reached $95 billion, supported by over 5,600 licensed hospitality facilities. Nearly all government services are digital, placing Saudi Arabia second globally in E-government rankings.

By the end of 2024, military spending localization reached 24.89%, with GAMI licensing over 265 local and international companies by early 2026, anchoring strategic sovereignty. In AI, Saudi Aramco now operates its own internal intelligence engine, METABRAIN, generating $1.8 billion in value in 2024 alone, with a target of SAR 18.75 billion ($5 billion) annually by 2025–2026. Beyond that, HUMAIN, Saudi Arabia’s national AI engine, backed by a $100 billion budget, is positioned to create global, not just local impact.

The Engine of the Future

Finally, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) grew from approximately SAR 570 billion ($152 billion) in 2015 to over SAR 4.3 trillion ($1.15 trillion) in assets under management today. This is not just capital—it is the engine of the next generation’s future. It approved itself with strong leadership and success to deliver the vision by Saudis leaders.

The conclusion for any fair observer is clear: The Kingdom is not merely moving forward, they are leading, with responsibility, morality, resilience, and a commitment that extends the success and development beyond itself to the wider world. All respect to the leaders of the Kingdom who are making history. There are rare moments in time when you can feel a great civilization being built, and that moment is unfolding today in Saudi Arabia.